Publicerat i
Krönikor, Svenskaden 11 juni 2010•
Krisen i Grekland sänder chockvågor genom världen och jag får många frågor om hur Sverige påverkas. Från tidigare kriser vet vi att finansiell oro kan slå hårt mot oss. Bedömningen är att blir krisen kortvarig och inte sprider sig till andra högt skuldsatta länder, riskeras inga större realekonomiska följder men vid en långvarig kris gäller det motsatta.
I Grekland ser vi exempel på ökad refinansieringsrisk med enorma lånebelopp som ska omsättas och en marknad som har varit tveksam till att ställa upp med nya krediter när gamla löper ut.
Vi har sett det förut. Från en dag till en annan kan synen på risk drastiskt ändras och medverka till kreditoro, likviditetsbrist och kapitalbrist i det finansiella systemet.
Liten tuva…
Det visar sig att ett litet land i Europa med 2.5 procent av EU:s BNP kan utlösa en statsfinansiell kris. Läget är fortfarande allvarligt även om den akuta likviditetskrisen är avvärjd men solvensrisken finns kvar.
Krisen har även öppnat för intressanta diskussioner om vår framtid och min förhoppning är att den blir en viktig drivkraft för att stärka det framtida EU-bygget. Greklandskrisen handlar egentligen inte om Grekland utan hur Europas länder kan minska sina statsskulder samtidigt som ny tillväxt skapas.
Globalt kan vi se en bredare konjunkturåterhämtning som sker olika snabbt i världen. Det är Asien, med världens megaländer Kina och Indien som är loket i återhämtningen. I de gamla industriländerna går tillväxten fortfarande trögt medan USA:s ekonomi växer fortare än både Europas och Japans. I vår egen närhet, Norden, går återhämtningen bra.
Långsamt uppåt
Den svenska ekonomin vänder uppåt även om vägen är både lång och guppig. Det finns en hel del positiva signaler och prognoser från EU-kommissionen visar att Sverige har en av de starkaste offentliga finanserna i hela EU.
När konjunkturen vänder kan vi räkna med att kommunsektorn följer med men med viss fördröjningseffekt. 2010 ser ut att bli ett ganska bra år tack vare de extra riktade statsbidragen, så även 2011. Givetvis under förutsättning att konjunkturåterhämtningen är fortsatt stabil.
Vårpropositionen 2010 var en försiktig budget för att vara ett valår, inte minst för kommunsektorns räkning. Min bedömning är att vi kommer få fler löften som direkt berör sektorn när valet närmar sig och konjunkturläget är stärkt. I första hand kommer det att handla om välfärdens kärna med skola och omsorg i fokus.
Infrastruktursatsning
Nyligen presenterade regeringen en satsning på infrastrukturen om 482 miljarder kronor. Totalt handlar det om 417 miljarder kronor statlig finansiering och 65 miljarder kronor som finansieras genom trängselskatter, vägavgifter, EU-medel samt kommunala bidrag.
Finansiering i samverkan såsom medfinansiering och olika typer av OPS-lösningar/PPP (Offentlig-Privat Samverkan/Private-Public Partnership) är något som är relativt vanligt i flera andra länder och diskuteras alltmer i det svenska samhället. Som Kommungäld tittar vi närmare på hur dessa frågor och finansieringslösningar påverkar landets kommunsektor ur ett finansiellt perspektiv.
Ökad lokalisering
Vårt land blir alltmer globaliserat vilket inte minst finanskrisen och Greklandskrisen lär oss. Själv har jag nyligen trätt in som svensk medlem i ”Chief Economists Network of the European Association of Public Banks (EAPB)”.
Jag ser medlemskapet som en del i att stärka Kommungälden i omvärlden och att Sverige är representerat i ett europeiskt forum där viktiga ekonomiska och finansiella frågor om vår framtid diskuteras.
Lena Bäcker
Chefekonom
Kommuninvest i Sverige
För att läsa mer om konjunktur och global ekonomi:
http://www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/05/28/bnp-raket-skjuter-for-rantehojning-i-juli/
http://www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/05/09/sa-paverkas-svensk-ekonomi-av-greklandskrisen/
http://www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/04/01/kommuninvests-chefekonom-trader-in-i-natverket-for-europas-ledande-chefekonomer/
http://www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/04/26/global-konjunkturrapport-islossning-pa-varldshaven/
Publicerat i
Analys, Englishden 10 juni 2010•
As the Swedish Local Government Debt Office and part of the public sector, we have drawn attention to the sector’s financial challenges in different countries. Recently, we initiated an increased interaction at European level through the formation of the European Association of Public Bank (EAPB) ”Chief Economist’s Network” for Europe’s leading chief economists. The network aims to discuss important issues affecting the sector, our country and the future of Europe from a financial viewpoint.
In Varna, Bulgarian, chief economists of the network met for the first time, and even some EU-commission leaders participated in the discussions. Included in the agenda were the public sector, the European countries and the banks’ financial situation and challenges from both a short and long-term perspective.
After the financial crisis, the global financial economy has stabilized and begun a vigorous recovery. This applies to several countries in Europe, Asia, Australia, Russia, and South America but also in Africa. This year, China’s GDP is expected to grow by 10 per cent, India’s by 8 per cent and Africa’s by 5 per cent.
The focus at the moment is on Europe. In fact, many of the world’s countries and economies have fewer and fewer young people, while the proportion of older people is increasing sharply. Exit strategies and eurozone crises are not just about public debt, but about our future and welfare.
What started as a financial crisis in the United States and ended with a small country in Europe with 2.5 per cent of the EU’s GDP triggered a eurozone crisis. However, this crisis also opens up interesting discussions about our future, because the question is how European countries can reduce their public debts while creating new growth.
Substantial increases in public debt are not a new phenomenon. Both Sweden and Finland have experienced several crises in recent decades but managed to escape in a financially efficient manner while growth greatly increased. Both countries were also selected as good examples for our meeting with European Commission leaders.
What does Europe’s future look like?
Participants at the meeting of the Chief Economist Network saw stabilization and moderate recovery in European finances, even after considering the enormous financial restructurings that must now be implemented.
Eurozone crises will lead to necessary reforms of the Stability and Growth Pact in which the crisis contributes to a more integrated Europe, but also increase the EU monitoring of the macro-economic imbalances in each country. The unique rescue package constructed by the ECB, the IMF and the eurozone countries is a major step towards improved coordination and financial cooperation between the countries.
The rescue package is a step where the strong economies such as Germany will help the weaker economies such as Greece. What many may not think of is that some relief is already available today via the European Structural Funds.
In order to avoid new crises and deficits, it is important to have fiscal discipline. There is a clear need for a permanent and much clearer framework for dealing with crises, and it is now clear that such a framework did not previously exist.
Finally, and most importantly, in order to prevent a global fall in GDP, or a double-dip a consensus of world leaders on how to strengthen the global recovery is essential.
This is because “common vision” is the key term if the countries are to get to the point of having well-managed stable public finances and increased growth at the same time. The fact is that all countries cannot launch their savings package at the same time, as there is undoubtedly a serious risk that growth would then be adversely affected.
The situation now is about ensuring sustainable public finances, and increasing the GDP growth potential.
I see continuing positive developments where a global fall in GDP or a double-dip do not form main scenario. Some countries in the world are facing enormous financial challenges whilst others have very strong economies.
If the EU countries’ financial consolidation is handled efficiently, and there are already good examples of this being done in the public sector, the short-term negative effects on growth and limited long-term effects should be seen as significant. In particular, the consolidation could then credibly be perceived as permanent.
A new world order has been implemented. The economic history can be divided into the world before and the world after the financial crisis. In just one year, the world’s financial assets decreased by 40 billion dollars.
There is a shift of momentum and power that is impossible to ignore. We are speaking here of the beginning of a new world order. The most important thing to learn from the financial crisis is that there is no longer a single economic and political panacea. There are several.
The challenge is to turn weaknesses into strengths and to collaborate across borders to provide our residents with increased welfare and thus a better quality of life.
Lena Bäcker
Chief Economist
Kommuninvest in Sweden
The Swedish Local Government Debt Office
Publicerat i
Analys, Englishden 10 juni 2010•
At the first meeting of EAPB ”Chief Economist Network”, I made a presentation on the outlook for Sweden and the Swedish municipal sector. The following is taken from this presentation.
Our assessment is that during the financial crisis Sweden had a fundamentally sound economy, and is now also well-positioned for the recovery that is underway. Sweden is one of the most globalized economies in the world today with exports, mainly to Europe and the USA, representing more than half of the country’s gross domestic product.
If the crisis in Greece extends to a larger scale of world economies, Sweden may also be affected by a downturn in exports, although this may in turn be offset by a weaker krona and increased exports to Asia and the USA.
Since the financial crisis ended, thousands of redundancy notices have been withdrawn. Statistics show that, of all the redundancy notices issued, between 65 and 70% actually resulted in redundancy. The number of vacancies has risen steadily since last autumn. This suggests that employment will continue to strengthen in the future.
More and more companies in the country have begun to recruit. It is mainly the services sector which is making a positive contribution to the economy. Industrial orders are also continue to grow, which bodes well for near term growth. Orders grew 17.6 per cent in the year to April and the momentum is very strong. Sweden is gaining from the increase in world demand and export orders are growing more strongly than domestic orders.
Instead of a peak in unemployment of 12 per cent, we believe that the actual rate will be around 9 per cent for 2010 and that it will then fall to around 8 per cent during 2011.
The Swedish domestic sector continues to strengthen in the second quarter of 2010, following the very strong GDP outcome for the first quarter. In total, Sweden’s GDP increased by 3.0 per cent compared with the corresponding quarter last year. The increase was higher than expected, and reinforces our view that Sweden ranks top in Europe in terms of growth.
So far there are no signs of global market turmoil having affected current central domestic macro variables.
The Swedish GDP is projected to grow by 2.5 per cent this year and 3.9 per cent by 2011.
The current forecast for Sweden’s economy shows a surplus in public finances of more than 1 per cent by 2013.
The local government sector showed unexpectedly strong results for 2009. There are multiple reasons for this. One reason was that the municipalities decided to reduce their costs at an early stage of the crisis.
The recovery in economic activity means that the municipal tax base gradually strengthened. The status between different municipalities and different counties, however, differs widely. The local government sector is expected to report a surplus totalling 18.6 billion Swedish crowns in 2010 and 3.5 billion 2011. For 2011, the tax base will increase by over 3 per cent.
The municipalities will be facing major challenges in the coming years. Factors such as increased demands from the taxpayer, demographic, medical and technological developments, the gap between supply and demand all look likely to increase continually. Also the challenge of a sharp reduction in the number of inhabitants will be felt by several of the country´s municipalities.
We see that awareness of these challenges is increasing and the sector is constantly working to find long-term sustainable solutions.
Lena Bäcker
Chief Economist
Kommuninvest in Sweden
The Swedish Local Government Debt Office
Publicerat i
Analys, Englishden 10 juni 2010•
The first meeting of EAPB Chief Economists Network was hosted last week by the Bulgarian Development Bank (BDB) in Varna. I had two presentations during the meeting:
1). The current economic situation (after the crisis) in Sweden from a Chief Economist’s point of view.
2). Europe and the international economies: The role of the euro: effects on the real economy in and outside Europe
This is some information from the 2nd presentation.
In Europe, some countries are going through structural fiscal challenges at the same time as we are facing strong developments in globalization and urbanization. Our view is that financial markets are exaggerating the risk of a new global financial meltdown and a subsequent global economic double dip. However, austerity measures in troubled European countries will weaken domestic demand and delay recovery in those countries.
Now it is important to address weaknesses and boost strength.
The question for the EU in the long term is ”How can the long-term development within the EU match that of the USA, China, India and other fast growing economies?” In these challenges, as I see it, collaboration between European countries will be a very important factor for success. This is why we have to look closer at ”The role of the euro: effects on the real economy in and outside Europe” from many different aspects where the Stability and Growth Pact will be important for the future.
It is important to strengthen budgetary surveillance to avoid new crises with further deficits. Macro-economic imbalances must be adjusted to tackle the root causes of low competitiveness. In addition, there must be a permanent and robust framework for crisis management. The world’s leading economies have to show common resolve to foster the global recovery.
Many countries will pursue a tighter fiscal policy to improve their public finances, which could hamper growth in the slightly longer term. The euro crisis may also provide substantial financial turbulence with increased systemic and refinancing risk.
The euro continues on its sliding path against the USD, hitting a four-year low recently. Although the short-term turmoil has passed, the long-term challenges remain. Many countries must reduce their budget deficits and overcome growing public debt.
The cost cuts of the EU countries will mainly focus on spending cuts, but there will also be tax increases, which in return will reduce demand for goods.
On the other hand, the recent weakening of the euro together with a strong global recovery will also provide growth advantages for eurozone exports and strengthen the EU’s position on the international market.
In the long run it may well mean that Europe is not affected by a larger fall in GDP, but can handle the impact of the euro crisis well. This, of course, assumes that there is not a very large contagion effect, and also that the financial sector is not negatively affected by a second setback and a new financial crisis.
My assessment is that the crisis will lead to a further integrated Europe. The entire rescue package launched a major step toward greater coordination between member states. The question is how long countries like Sweden and Norway can stand outside the fully integrated eurozone?
Today, only 25% of Swedes are positive to introducing the euro and would vote yes in a referendum on an EMU entry while 61% would vote no according to a poll carried out by the financial newspaper Dagens Industri. That contrasts with the figures a year ago when 44% were positive towards an EMU entry and 47% negative.
A tough job now awaits some countries to fulfil their promises and take action. It is crucial that the political courage remains so that the people are convinced about the necessary measures. The world economy is in its best position since the financial crisis. In the short term, the most important thing is to solve the issue of how to pursue necessary fiscal consolidation, budget consolidation and the reduction of deficits, whilst at the same time support economic growth? These are not simple issues. Fiscal reforms have to happen in a way that is friendly for growth.
Europe’s focus for the long term should remain on financial soundness and, simultaneously, the increase of GDP growth.
History has taught us that crisis also paves the way for the renewal and development. I believe that this crisis is likely to strengthen our countries.
The eurozone crisis could perhaps be a major catalyst to strengthen European cooperation and Europe’s position within the international economies.
Lena Bäcker
Chief Economist
Kommuninvest in Sweden
The Swedish Local Government Debt Office
Publicerat i
Svenska, Övrigtden 7 juni 2010•
Det första ”Chief Economists Network” nätverket för Europas ledande Chefekonomer mötet av European Association of Public Banks (EAPB) anordnades den 3-4 juni av Bulgariska utvecklingsbanken (BDB) i Varna. Som initiativtagare till bildandet av nätverket ser jag det första mötet som en intressant plattform som ger oss viktiga insikter om hur Europa ser efter ut i krisen både i finansiella som makroekonomiska aspekter.
De flesta experter stödde idén om en svag återhämtning av den europeiska ekonomin. Man kunde även se en återgång till arbetsmarknaden. Vi kunde konstatera att offentliga banker och finansiärer spelar en avgörande roll för att främja och stärka ekonomin i kris.
En viktig del för nätverket är att lära av varandras erfarenheter att hantera krisen. En stor del av mötet fokuserades runt arbetet med att återställa balansen i de offentliga finanserna för de skuldtyngda länderna. Tillsammans med EU-kommissionen diskuterade vi innehållet i en eventuell reform av stabilitets- och tillväxtpakten i syfte att stabilisera läget i Europa och skapa en långsiktig tillväxt. Till detta kopplades samtal om den nya Europa 2020 strategin för tillväxt.
Jag hade två presentationer under mötet:
1) Den nuvarande ekonomiska situationen (efter krisen) i Sverige
2) EU och den internationella ekonomin: Eurons effekter på den reala ekonomin i och utanför Europa
Mr Schoppmann, generalsekreterare EAPB öppnade mötet. Han ser ett behov av en effektiv krishantering mekanism för att stärka Europas roll i 21-talet.
Mr. Rumen Simeonov, Deputy Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank var en av huvudtalarna vid mötet. Han byggde vidare på de utmaningar Bulgarien står inför det 21: a århundradet och talade om den makroekonomiska utvecklingen i Bulgarien och det bulgariska banksystemet. Mr Simenov såg en relativt låg inflation under tiden 2010-2012, en gradvis minskning av arbetslöshet efter Q3 2010 och en ganska positiv ekonomisk verksamhet med en BNP-tillväxt på cirka 0% upp till 1%.
Sven Langendijk chef för generaldirektoratet för ekonomi och finans (GD Ekonomi och finans), EU-kommissionen talade om EU: s politiska reaktioner på krisen och diskussionen om en eventuell reform av stabilitets-och tillväxtpakten. Givetvis inkluderas den nya 2020 strategin i diskussionerna. Sven ansvarar för upplägget av det nyligen genomförda räddningspaketet av Greklands ekonomi.
Chefekonomer och experter från EAPB medlemsbanker från Sverige, Bulgarien, Danmark, Tyskland, Ungern, Lettland, Nederländerna, och även banker i Italien och Makedonien deltog i mötet och belyste den nuvarande ekonomiska situationen i sina respektive länder.
Det var mycket trevliga och givande dagar där vi Chefekonomer lärde att känna varandra väl. Ser redan fram emot nästa möte, Bryssel i början av december.
Lena Bäcker
Chefekonom
Kommuninvest i Sverige
För att läsa mer om konjunktur och global ekonomi:
http://www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/05/13/eu-kraftsansamlar-for-okat-tillvaxt-chefekonomen-kommenterar/
http://www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/03/07/ny-eu-strategi-skall-starka-europa-pa-varldskartan-chefekonomen-kommenterar/
http://www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/05/09/sa-paverkas-svensk-ekonomi-av-greklandskrisen/
http://www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/04/01/kommuninvests-chefekonom-trader-in-i-natverket-for-europas-ledande-chefekonomer/
http://www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/04/26/global-konjunkturrapport-islossning-pa-varldshaven/
Publicerat i
Svenska, Övrigtden 6 juni 2010•
Kommek är en mötesplats för alla som är verksamma inom den offentliga ekonomin. Kommuninvest kommer att närvara både med mässmonter samt vara en del av seminarieprogrammet.
Kommuninvests seminarium har temat ”Långfristiga åtaganden – kortfristiga lånefinansieringar” . Ur makro- och mikroperspektiv diskuteras allt från den globala påverkan till hur avvägning mellan kostnad och risk påverkar varje enskild låntagare.
Tid: 18/8 2010, 16.00 – 17.00
Medverkande: Tomas Werngren vd, Kommuninvest; Maria Viimne, vice vd Kommuninvest; Maria Gabrielsson, Ekonomi och Finans SABO; Pierre Donatella, forskare, Kommunforskning i Västsverige; Mats Kinnwall, chefekonom, Sveriges Kommuner och Landsting
Moderator: Lena Bäcker, chefekonom, Kommuninvest
Önskar er varmt välkomna till ett intressant seminarium med högaktuella frågeställningar!
Lena Bäcker
Chefekonom
Kommuninvest Sverige
Läs gärna mer på:
http://www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/05/07/greklandsfrossa-med-okad-refinansieringsrisk/
www.kommek.se
www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/02/22/hojdpunkter-man-inte-bor-missa-kanske-far-vi-tillfalle-att-traffas/
Publicerat i
Svenska, Övrigtden 6 juni 2010•
Almedalen är en mycket speciell händelse på året och för första gången kommer Kommuninvest att vara en aktiv deltagare under politikerveckan i Almedalen, Visby. Själv medverkar jag större delen av veckan på Kommuninvests arrangemang och är inbjuden föreläsare och debattör hos flera andra organisationer.
I år väntar ett rekordstort deltagande med såväl besökare som medverkande organisationer. Kommuninvest närvarar och håller seminarium under årets politikervecka. Temat för seminariet lyder ”Det ska vara lönt att sköta sig – finansiering av välfärd i globalt perspektiv” och kommer att behandla förutsättningar för kommunal finansiering av välfärd genom ordning och reda. Utblick och inblick, globalt och lokalt.
Tid: 6/7 2010 15:00 – 16:30
Plats: S:t Lars kyrkoruin S:t Hansgatan
Moderator: Ulf Wickbom
Varmt välkomna till ett intressant seminarium!
Lena Bäcker
Chefekonom
Kommuninvest Sverige
För att läsa mer:
www.kommuninvest.se/blogg/2010/02/22/hojdpunkter-man-inte-bor-missa-kanske-far-vi-tillfalle-att-traffas/
www.almedalsveckan.info
Publicerat i
English, Övrigtden 2 juni 2010•
The first meeting of the EAPB Chief Economists Network was hosted last week by the Bulgarian Development Bank (BDB) in Varna. As the initiator of the network I see the first meeting as a platform which will give us important insights into the countries in Europe and the macro-economic environment in the European Union.
Most experts supported the notion of a slight recovery in the European Economy due to a gain in overall confidence and an improvement in the job market.
We also found that the public banks and funding agencies play a vital role in promoting and enhancing the local economy in times of crisis.
An important part of the network is to learn from the experience gained in handling the crisis. Much of the meeting was focused around efforts to restore the balance of public finances of the debtor countries. Together with the EU Commission, we discussed the content of a possible reform of the Stability and Growth Pact in order to stabilize the situation in Europe and create long-term growth with the new Europe 2020 strategy.
I had two presentations during the meeting:
1). The current economic situation (after the crisis) in Sweden.
2). Europe and the international economies: The role of the euro: effects on the real economy in and outside Europe.
Mr. Schoppmann, Secretary General of the EAPB opened the session. He sees a need for an effective crisis mechanism to strengthen Europe’s role in the 21st century.
Mr. Rumen Simeonov, Deputy Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, was one of the main speakers at the meeting. He elaborated on the challenges Bulgaria is facing in the 21st century and talked about the macro-economic development in Bulgaria and the Bulgarian banking system. Perspectives include relatively low inflation in the years 2010-2012, a gradual decline in unemployment after the third quarter of 2010 , and fairly positive economic activity with GDP growth somewhere in the area of 0 to 1%.
In addition, Mr. Sven Langendijk of Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission had a interesting speech about EU policy responses on the crisis and the discussion on a possible reform of the Stability and Growth Pact. There were a lot of questions around this topic.
Chief economists and experts of EAPB Member Banks from Sweden, Bulgaria, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, the Netherlands, and also of banks of Italy and Macedonia took part in the meeting and elucidated the current economic situation in their respective countries.
I think these were very pleasant and rewarding days, in which we Chief Economists got to know each other very well. I am looking forward to our next meeting, in Brussels in early December.
Lena Bäcker
Chief Economist
Kommuninvest in Sweden
The Swedish Local Government Debt Office
